Reply To: O Group Kota Bharu landings QS AAR Video

[John D Salt]

Silly me. I was holding one of my probabilities upside-down, and so calculating for a one-third chance of a save, rather than a one-third chance of a hit being confirmed.

Re-twiddling to the right numbers, 50% chance of hit and 50% chance of success, on six dice that means an expectation of 1.5 hits, mode and median of 1 hit, and a 53% chance of getting away with no more than one hit. So entirely believeable the thing could have been non-outrageous luck.

All the best,

John.