Reply To: Russian tank shooting, 1992

[John D Salt]

MartinR wrote:

Even if the absolute values are rather optimistic, I guess the relative values are roughly OK.

Yup — a classic analysts’ excuse for offering estimates they know to be wildly optimistic!

Optimism in p(hit), for both sides, also seems evident in the following 1980 estimates of SSKPs from a 1980 DOAE report (DEFE 48/1076, “Cost-Effectiveness of Chieftain, Challenger and MBT-80”):

Range (m)	         500	1000	1500	2000	2500	3000	3500
MBT-80 Mk 2 on T-72	 93%	 89%	 83%	 72%	 58%	 46%	 36%
125mm on Chieftain	 97%	 92%	 80%	 64%	 51%	 40%	 31%

As a nod in the direction of operational friction, the paper report mentions that 28% of rounds are assumed to be fired against dead targets, based on the recent experience of Exercise “Chinese Eye”.

All the best,

John.