While everything that posters have written is probably true at the moment, this too shall pass. I think that like any hobby or community-based activity, Golf or coin-collecting. It is a sine wave. H.G. Wells lemented the decline of wargaming interest in the 1890-1900s when his book stopped selling and the U.S. military lost interest. Supposedly, Kriegspiel exercises were dying out after WWI and the German defeat, but the 1930s U.S. Navy began using wargames in a big way. In the 1960’s both board and miniature gaming was just getting with the public in the U.S. But it it boomed in the 1970s-1990s in the US. All the U.S. miniatures magazines and major companies are gone now. The Great Recession has taken its toll. The millinials don’t have jobs and are living with their parents. You need money and space to do miniatures. Etc. etc. etc.
In my area, Sacramento and the Central Valley of California, several clubs have sprung up and are doing just fine, with at least four mini-conventions or conventions a year. There are even new game stores opening in the area with lots of room for gaming. [Yes, miniatures] The number of ‘younger’ gamers under 4o have a strong presence. Does that mean that wargaming isn’t dying? I don’t know. A lot of British game rules are popular.
The economy, computer games, the internet all have had an impact, but I am sure none of them will kill minature wargaming. There will continue to be highs and lows in popularity and populations of gamers. It was always thus. Taking a historical view, I am pretty confident that historical miniature wargaming will survive and grow again. In the meantime, I will focus on my little corner of the wargaming world. You can’t worry about the entire world. Life’s too short.