I’d agree with nearly all of what Jonathan outlines.
The only thing that I am uncertain of is if the option of halting in 1807 was really an option. Don’t get me wrong, Nappy did plenty to hurt his own cause post-1807, what I ponder is:
Had Napoleon not pressed the continental system, and therefore not felt the necessity of deposing the government of Spain and thus starting the Peninsular War – would the rest of Europe have let him sit?
I don’t think it is impossible, but I am suspect. I don’t know what motivates the British away from continuing to fund various interests to rise against him – or what prevents Prussia from continuing to prepare for a bitter resurgence. Certainly the timeline and order of events changes, but does the trend?